Dr. Aristides Moustakas
Welcome to my site!
I have interdisciplinary skills in Data Analytics in Biological, Environmental, and Behavioural Sciences.
Research Interests and Skills:
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Data analytics
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Population biology
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Land use & Climatic changes
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Environmental Policy & Protection
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Veterinary Epidemiology
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Machine learning/Artificial intelligence
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Human-Biodiversity & Wildlife Conflicts
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Statistical modelling
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Environmental Impact & Risk Assessment
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Spatial analysis and planning
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Horizon scanning and temporal analysis
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Environmental informatics
The biodiversity-wind energy-land use nexus in a global biodiversity hotspot
Wind energy is the leading renewable technology towards achieving climate goals, yet biodiversity trade-offs via land take are emerging. Thus, we are facing the paradox of impacting on biodiversity to combat climate change. Greece, a global biodiversity hotspot, has licensed wind farms producing 502% more energy than the national target by 2030! Can we really mitigate against climate change by impacting biodiversity? Land use loss is a main driver of climate change.
We are suggesting spatial planning that minimizes protected areas, high mountains, and high diversity areas, while maximizing fragmented areas. This comes only at a 4% lower energy efficiency.
Abrupt events and population synchrony in epidemiology
Can rare, extreme (abrupt) events synchronize geographically distinct populations?
Abrupt or extreme events are generally hard to study as by definition they do not occur frequently. Synchrony after abrupt events has been reported also in climate sciences. In the Arctic, extreme weather events synchronized population fluctuations across animals. Do abrupt events synchronize the spread of diseases?
Routine testing for the harmful pathogen Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) was suspended briefly during the foot and mouth disease epidemic of 2001 in Great Britain. We utilize bTB incidence data to demonstrate how the short-lasting abrupt lapse in management can alter epidemiological parameters, including the rate of new infections and duration of infection cycles.
We show that the changes in epidemiological parameters during the short-lasting unmanaged time while testing was suspended, can increase new infections markedly, can have long-lasting effects, and generate longer-term temporal infection cycles. Infection cycles shifted from annual to 4-year after testing interruption. Spatial synchrony of new infections between different GB regions after the interruption of cattle testing increased. These effects persisted for over 15 years after the abrupt testing interruption. After annual testing was introduced in some GB regions, new infections have become more de-synchronised, a result also confirmed by a stochastic model. This study shows that amendments in the epidemiological parameters lead to chaotic patterns and that abrupt events synchronise disease dynamics.
Reference:
Moustakas, A., Evans, M.R., Daliakopoulos, I.N. and Markonis, Y. (2018) Abrupt events and population synchrony in the dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis. Nature Communications, 9: 2821
See also an animation of the paper:
MORE RESEARCH & OPPORTUNITIES
Interactions between humans and wildfires have increased in many regions over the last decades driven by climate and land-use changes.
We used Google Trends to assess temporal patterns (2004–2020) in public interest on wildfires worldwide and in five case study countries (Australia, Canada, Indonesia, Portugal, USA) as well as worldwide.
Public interest consistently shows a cyclic pattern with low background and short-lasting spikes during fire seasons and catastrophic events. Wildfires that receive the most interest worldwide are located in Western countries, especially the USA. There is usually high demand for news on wildfires when spikes in interest happen.
Overall global interest in wildfire has risen twice: first for a short period in 2007–2008, concomitant to catastrophic wildfires in California, and again since 2017, probably triggered by a series of catastrophic fire events around the globe.
Nevertheless, public interest in wildfire is low when compared with socioeconomically more costly earthquakes or hurricanes.
The short and seasonal interest in wildfire may present an important obstacle to the implementation of wildfire mitigation policies that require year-round approaches. However, the fact that the public uses the internet to obtain basic knowledge about wildfire functioning and impacts, especially during the interest spikes, can facilitate targeting awareness campaigns.
See our work published in Environmental Science and Policy in 2023:
Our recent calibrated individual based modelling paper showed that regular and frequent testing of cattle could eventually lead to the eradication of the Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) disease, whether or not badgers were culled.
The analysis found that in a region containing about 1.5m cows of which 3000 to 15,000 might have TB, badger culling could account for a reduction of 12 in the number of infected cattle. While reducing the testing interval by one month could reduce the number of those infected by 193.
Regular and frequent testing of cattle could eventually lead to the eradication of the disease, whether or not badgers were culled and despite the current test being at most 80% accurate. Badger culling alone, however did not lead to TB eradication in the study and is therefore unlikely to be a successful control strategy.
Housing cattle in large sheds over winter could potentially double the number of infected animals in a herd, as under such conditions there is a much greater chance of TB being passed between cows.
Enhancing Small-Medium IsLands resilience by securing the sustainability of Ecosystem Services (SMILES)
A funded EU COST action till 2026. Collaborations are welcome!
European islands are hotspots of biological and cultural diversity, which, compared to mainland, are more vulnerable to climate change, tourism development, uncontrolled land use changes and financial crisis.
Even if the existing techniques can adequately predict climate-induced ecological changes of the larger islands, this is not the case for small and medium size islands where there is a need for refinement.
The aim of this action is to provide a platform for coordinated interdisciplinary research on several aspects of mapping and assessment of ES in small and medium European Islands in order to synthesize and strengthen the knowledge base for conservation of island realms and contribute to their sustainable development.
I am coordinating Working Group 3: Effects of Land Use and Climatic Changes on Ecosystem Services. There are several funded opportunities for Short term Scientific Missions, Workshops, Meetings, and opportunities for collaborative research resulting in scientific journal publications. Check 'Webpage & News' for regular updates & news. Please get in touch if interested!
The new research analysed publicly available UK Governmental official data on Bovine Tuberculosis (TB) in cattle from 2008-2014 and used time series statistical methods to smooth out seasonal variations.
Testing is less frequent in England: every four years in some areas, every two years in others and annually in areas of high TB. The analysis showed TB in cattle is rising in England.
The Scottish programme of risk-based testing had led to the reduction in the number of tests there meaning that testing not only works but is cost-effective.However, the most rapid decline in infections was recorded in Wales since annual or even more frequent testing was applied.
Not only did more testing lead to effective control of the disease but further proof of its importance was shown by spikes in infections and infected herds when there were interruptions to testing after the 2001 foot and mouth outbreak in the UK.
This study based on publicly available data fully confirms the theoretical findings of our previous modelling paper regarding the efficacy of cattle testing in TB control as well as the impact of cattle winter housing on the dynamics of disease spread.
“This new research provides extremely strong evidence of what many experts in veterinary disease control have known for many years - that it is crucial to test cattle as frequently as possible in order to control bovine TB,” said Professor Alastair Macmillan, veterinary adviser to the Humane Society International/UK and a former government scientist.